British prisons face severe overcrowding crisis as expansion plans fall behind
Prisons in England and Wales are close to bursting point partly as a result of changes to sentencing rules © Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
The UK prison system is projected to face a shortage of more than 12,000 spaces by the end of 2027, according to the National Audit Office (NAO).
The watchdog’s report reveals that current plans to create 20,000 new prison spaces are significantly delayed, with completion now expected by 2031—five years behind schedule.
The delays are estimated to double costs to taxpayers, soaring from £4.2 billion to £10.1 billion. This financial strain, equivalent to a one percentage point cut in National Insurance contributions, raises the consequences of previous government failures to match tougher sentencing policies and increased police numbers with adequate prison capacity.
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) acknowledged that overcrowded prisons compromise public safety and increase the likelihood of reoffending. Emergency measures, such as early prisoner releases, have been criticized for exacerbating these risks.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Commons Public Accounts Committee, called the situation “unacceptable,” criticizing the MoJ’s reliance on short-term fixes and demanding a comprehensive, sustainable strategy.
Since 2010, the prison population has risen by 3,000, while only 1,005 net spaces were added. The NAO attributed delays to unrealistic timelines, budgetary constraints, and prolonged planning permission processes, with one proposed prison still awaiting approval.
The MoJ’s contingency measures include a sentencing review that could replace shorter jail terms with electronic tagging and community punishments. Despite these efforts, the NAO warns of a significant capacity gap unless urgent action is taken.
Labour has criticized the situation as a “dreadful inheritance” of broken promises and rising costs, pledging to prioritize effective prison reforms.
